Ready for 2008?

Me neither. But I found this interesting, mainly because I agree with it:

I don't have a dog in this fight, but my general sense of this right now is that the media's got it back asswards: Rudy could be nominated, but John McCain most definitely could not be.

Both are seemingly unlikely picks, but if asked to pick between the two, it boils down to this: partisanship matters. Giuliani differs from the Republican base in ways he's smart enough not to emphasize, but he is fiercely partisan. That may not win him points with the Randall Terry crowd, but it does impress the party regulars -- the blue-haired ladies who attend Lincoln Day Dinners who picked 43 over Forbes/Keyes, Dole over Buchanan/Forbes, and 41 over Kemp/DuPont. Rudy-skepticism has a certain hearsay quality to it -- I like the guy, but when the other 99.9% of Republicans who are anti-abortion zealots find out about him, all bets are off. McCain-skepticism among the base is much, much more direct: I viscerally dislike the guy because of: McCain-Feingold / the Gang of 14 / tax cuts / Kyoto / baiting the religious right / (insert support for any item on Democratic domestic agenda here.) McCain checks certain boxes ideologically -- though barely, but he is not very partisan. And anyone who thinks that doesn't matter should read Unconventional Wisdom's engrossing take on how the GOP nomination process actually works.